Are Long Waves 50 Years? Reexamining Economic and Financial Long Wave Periodicities in Kondratieff and Schumpeter
First published: 2023
Brief summary
Re-examines Kondratieff's original 1925 identification of a ~50-year long wave cycle across twenty-five economic and financial time series, situating it against a century of subsequent spectral and cluster-analysis-based tests of the hypothesis.
Article
Are Long Waves 50 Years? Reexamining Economic and Financial Long Wave Periodicities in Kondratieff and Schumpeter is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Review of Political Economy in 2023. It re-examines Kondratieff's original 1925 identification of a ~50-year long wave cycle across twenty-five economic and financial time series, situating it against a century of subsequent spectral and cluster-analysis-based tests of the hypothesis.
The analysis focuses on ~50 years. The study reviews history of statistical testing incl. Kuczynski's 1978 spectral/cluster analysis approach and later scholarly disputes over the periodicity's statistical reality. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: In 1925, the Russian economist Nikolai D. Kondratieff first presented his identification and analysis of a 'long wave' cycle of approximately 50 years in twenty-five economic and financial time series, a claim this paper reexamines against nearly a century of subsequent testing. The interpretation is strongest when trend, volatility, structural breaks, data-snooping and out-of-sample performance are addressed.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together kondratieff waves, 50-year cycle, schumpeter, economic periodicity. It is relevant to financial-cycle research because multiple periodicities can overlap with trend, volatility, structural breaks and changing investor behaviour.
Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Stock Markets forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Review of Political Economy
- Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Review of Political Economy
- URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09538259.2023.2280803