Statistical Physics of Fracture, Friction and Earthquake (Earthquake Cycles Review)
First published: 2011
Brief summary
Reviews quasi-periodic earthquake recurrence at specific fault segments, including magnitude-6 Parkfield earthquakes on the San Andreas fault (~23-year recurrence) and magnitude-8 events on the Nankai trough (~100-year recurrence).
Article
Statistical Physics of Fracture, Friction and Earthquake (Earthquake Cycles Review) is a preprint published by arXiv in 2011. It reviews quasi-periodic earthquake recurrence at specific fault segments, including magnitude-6 Parkfield earthquakes on the San Andreas fault (~23-year recurrence) and magnitude-8 events on the Nankai trough (~100-year recurrence).
The analysis focuses on 23 ± 9 years (Parkfield, San Andreas fault, since 1857), ~100 years (Nankai trough, Japan). The data source is historical seismic recurrence records. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: At the Parkfield segment along the San Andreas fault, magnitude 6 interplate earthquakes have occurred at recurrence intervals of 23 ± 9 years since 1857, while great magnitude 8 earthquakes along the Nankai trough repeat roughly every 100 years. The interpretation is strongest when measurement uncertainty, nonlinear dynamics, boundary conditions and alternative physical mechanisms are tested explicitly.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together earthquake cycles, fault recurrence, parkfield earthquakes, nankai trough. It is relevant to physical and geophysical systems in which oscillation, reversal, recurrence and nonlinear dynamics must be distinguished from random variability.
Because it is a preprint, the work should be read alongside later peer-reviewed publications and independent replications. It remains useful because the proposed cycle, dataset and analytical approach are stated clearly enough to be scrutinised.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: arXiv
- Source type: Preprint (review)
- URL type: PDF
- Credits: arXiv
- URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1112.0148