Islands of Chaos in a Sea of Periodic Earthquakes
First published: 2023
Brief summary
Documents quasi-periodic earthquake recurrence on the Alpine Fault (New Zealand) using a paleoseismic record of up to 11 consecutive events, showing recurrence is compatible with an underlying nonlinear, potentially chaotic mechanical system.
Article
Islands of Chaos in a Sea of Periodic Earthquakes is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Earth and Planetary Science Letters (ScienceDirect) in 2023. It documents quasi-periodic earthquake recurrence on the Alpine Fault (New Zealand) using a paleoseismic record of up to 11 consecutive events, showing recurrence is compatible with an underlying nonlinear, potentially chaotic mechanical system.
Quasi-periodic recurrence documented over 11 consecutive paleoseismic events. The data source is Hokuri Creek paleoseismic trenching record, Alpine Fault, New Zealand. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The authors document the periodicity of earthquake cycles based on recurrence times alone. The quasi-periodicity of seismic cycles is compatible with the nonlinear and potentially chaotic underlying mechanical system, posing a challenge to long-term earthquake prediction. The interpretation is strongest when measurement uncertainty, nonlinear dynamics, boundary conditions and alternative physical mechanisms are tested explicitly.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together alpine fault, earthquake recurrence, nonlinear dynamics, seismic chaos. It is relevant to physical and geophysical systems in which oscillation, reversal, recurrence and nonlinear dynamics must be distinguished from random variability.
Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Physics & Geophysics forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Earth and Planetary Science Letters (ScienceDirect)
- Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Earth and Planetary Science Letters (ScienceDirect)
- URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0012821X2300287X