Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone
First published: 2013
Brief summary
Uses GPS/InSAR-derived seismic moment accumulation and release modeling to estimate a large-earthquake recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 years for the fault zone that ruptured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.
Article
Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Mathematical Problems in Engineering (via PMC) in 2013. It uses GPS/InSAR-derived seismic moment accumulation and release modelling to estimate a large-earthquake recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 years for the fault zone that ruptured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.
The analysis focuses on 3900 ± 400 years. The data source is GPS and InSAR deformation data plus paleoseismologic trenching results. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The results indicate that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) x 10^17 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 years is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. The interpretation is strongest when measurement uncertainty, nonlinear dynamics, boundary conditions and alternative physical mechanisms are tested explicitly.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together earthquake recurrence, longmen shan fault, wenchuan earthquake, gps and insar. It is relevant to physical and geophysical systems in which oscillation, reversal, recurrence and nonlinear dynamics must be distinguished from random variability.
Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Physics & Geophysics forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Mathematical Problems in Engineering (via PMC)
- Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Mathematical Problems in Engineering (via PMC)
- URL: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3710655/