Kondratiev wave
Article
Kondratiev waves are hypothesised long-term fluctuations in the modern world economy, commonly described as lasting roughly forty to sixty years. The proposed waves alternate between periods of relatively rapid sectoral growth and periods of slower growth or stagnation.
The concept is associated with Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev, who examined long-run movements in prices, production, interest rates, wages, and international trade. Joseph Schumpeter later named the proposed cycles after him and connected them with clusters of technological innovation.
Suggested explanations include major technologies, infrastructure investment, demographic change, debt accumulation, financial instability, resource constraints, and the diffusion of new production systems. Different writers identify different starting dates, phases, and causal mechanisms.
Long-wave theory is not accepted by most academic economists. Critics argue that the apparent waves may result from selective dating, limited historical data, changing institutions, overlapping shorter cycles, or the human tendency to detect patterns in irregular events.
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- Source / publisher: Wikipedia
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Wikipedia
- URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave