Empirical Properties of Crime Rate Trends
First published: 2024
Brief summary
Rigorous statistical testing (Tsay nonlinearity tests) of long-period cycle claims in US homicide rate trends finds the apparent multi-decade 'wave' is likely a statistical artifact of a random walk process rather than a genuine cycle.
Article
Empirical Properties of Crime Rate Trends is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice (Sage) in 2024. It focuses on rigorous statistical testing (Tsay nonlinearity tests) of long-period cycle claims in US homicide rate trends finds the apparent multi-decade 'wave' is likely a statistical artifact of a random walk process rather than a genuine cycle.
The study tests claimed long-period homicide cycles. The study finds apparent wave disappears after differencing, suggesting it is a random-walk artifact rather than genuine periodicity. The data source is panel of 47 large US cities, 1960-2021. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: Some observers suggest that homicide rates follow long-period cycles. The apparent homicide wave disappears after differencing, strongly suggesting that it is an artifact of the generating process rather than genuine nonlinear cyclicality. The interpretation is strongest when it survives detrending, autocorrelation controls, structural-break tests and comparison with stochastic or random-walk alternatives.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together crime rate trends, homicide cycles, random walk, time-series testing. It is relevant to social-cycle research because apparent waves in historical or behavioural data must be separated from seasonality, autocorrelation, structural change and random walks.
Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Sociology forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice (Sage)
- Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice (Sage)
- URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/10439862231189979