Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780-2010
First published: 2012
Brief summary
Spectral analysis of a database of 1,590 US political violence events (riots, lynchings, terrorism) over 230 years detects a long secular cycle plus a superimposed ~50-year oscillation with peaks around 1870, 1920 and 1970.
Article
Dynamics of Political Instability in the United States, 1780-2010 is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Journal of Peace Research in 2012. It presents a spectral analysis of a database of 1,590 US political violence events (riots, lynchings, terrorism) over 230 years detects a long secular cycle plus a superimposed ~50-year oscillation with peaks around 1870, 1920 and 1970.
The analysis focuses on ~50-year oscillation (peaks 1870, 1920, 1970) superimposed on a longer secular cycle (~150 years). The method uses spectral analysis figure. The data source is digitized database of 1,590 political violence events. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: Spectral analysis detected two main oscillatory modes: a very long-term secular cycle, and a 50-year oscillation superimposed on the secular cycle, with peaks around 1870, 1920 and 1970 -- a pattern also seen in ancient Rome and medieval England, France and Russia. The interpretation is strongest when it survives detrending, autocorrelation controls, structural-break tests and comparison with stochastic or random-walk alternatives.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together political instability, political violence cycles, 50-year oscillation, secular cycles. It is relevant to social-cycle research because apparent waves in historical or behavioural data must be separated from seasonality, autocorrelation, structural change and random walks.
Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Sociology forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Journal of Peace Research
- Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Journal of Peace Research
- URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022343312442078