A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History
First published: 2013
Brief summary
Applies structural-demographic theory to US and Chinese historical instability data, modeling the superposition of ~50-year cycles on longer secular waves of sociopolitical instability driven by elite overproduction and population pressure.
Article
A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History is a preprint/working paper published by Peter Turchin (working paper/book manuscript) in 2013. It applies structural-demographic theory to US and Chinese historical instability data, modelling the superposition of ~50-year cycles on longer secular waves of sociopolitical instability driven by elite overproduction and population pressure.
The analysis focuses on ~50-year cycles superimposed on secular waves. The study includes a figure of Chinese political stability index data plotted per 25-year interval from historical records. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: Long-term dynamics of sociopolitical instability are characterised by a complex mixture of two periodicities: 50-year cycles superimposed on secular waves, a pattern examined here for both the United States and historical China. The interpretation is strongest when it survives detrending, autocorrelation controls, structural-break tests and comparison with stochastic or random-walk alternatives.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together structural-demographic theory, political instability, 50-year cycles, secular waves. It is relevant to social-cycle research because apparent waves in historical or behavioural data must be separated from seasonality, autocorrelation, structural change and random walks.
Because it is a preprint/working paper, the work should be read alongside later peer-reviewed publications and independent replications. It remains useful because the proposed cycle, dataset and analytical approach are stated clearly enough to be scrutinised.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Peter Turchin (working paper/book manuscript)
- Source type: Preprint/working paper
- URL type: PDF
- Credits: Peter Turchin (working paper/book manuscript)
- URL: