Seasonal Patterns in Crime
First published: 1984
Brief summary
OJP abstract on seasonal crime patterns and social behaviour.
Article
The linked report examines whether reported crime shows recurring seasonal variation and reviews the analytical problems involved in making such comparisons. It uses data from Illinois to compare crime categories, locations and time periods.
Seasonal findings depend on how offences are defined, whether the data measure occurrence or reporting, the geographical scale and the length and quality of the time series. Apparent monthly differences can also be affected by the number of days in a month and changes in reporting practices.
The report finds that seasonal patterns are not uniform across all offences. Larceny and theft show the most consistent seasonality among the crime types considered, while other categories vary by place, period or analytical method.
Seasonality is therefore treated as an empirical property of a particular series rather than a universal law of crime. Reliable analysis requires comparison with long-term trends, irregular fluctuations and local social conditions before seasonal interpretations are made.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: OJP
- Source type: Research abstract
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: OJP
- URL: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/seasonal-patterns-crime