Demographic Transition
First published: 2019
Brief summary
Our World in Data essay on demographic stages and population change.
Article
The demographic transition describes the change from a population with high birth and death rates to one with low birth and death rates. Rapid population growth occurs during the interval when mortality has fallen but fertility remains comparatively high.
In the first stage, high mortality offsets high fertility and population growth is limited. Improvements in nutrition, sanitation, medicine and living conditions then reduce death rates, especially among infants and children, while birth rates initially remain high.
Fertility commonly declines later as child survival improves and economic and social conditions change. The gap between births and deaths narrows, causing the population growth rate to slow before a new balance of low mortality and low fertility is reached.
Countries have experienced this transition at different times and speeds. The model describes a widely observed sequence, but it does not require every society to follow identical stages or explain every factor influencing fertility, mortality, migration and age structure.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Our World in Data
- Source type: Data essay
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Our World in Data
- URL: https://ourworldindata.org/demographic-transition