Dynamo Theory and Perspectives of Forecasting Solar Cycles
First published: 2017
Brief summary
Explicitly compares the remarkable long-term stability and predictability of the solar sunspot cycle against economic cycles, noting that despite vastly greater research investment, economic forecasting has never achieved the predictive reliability solar cycle science reached by the 1960s.
Article
Dynamo Theory and Perspectives of Forecasting Solar Cycles is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ScienceDirect) in 2017. It focuses on explicitly compares the remarkable long-term stability and predictability of the solar sunspot cycle against economic cycles, noting that despite vastly greater research investment, economic forecasting has never achieved the predictive reliability solar cycle science reached by the 1960s.
Cross-disciplinary comparison of solar cycle (~11 yr) predictability against economic cycle predictability. It also considers explicitly interdisciplinary framing comparing two very different cyclic domains. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
Compare this situation with another example of natural periodicity: economic cycles. the authors conclude that solar cycles are remarkably stable compared to other natural cyclic processes, enabling crude predictions that the level of economic forecasting has never achieved. The interpretation is strongest when the same cycle definition and statistical standard can be applied consistently across the different fields being compared.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together solar cycle forecasting, dynamo theory, sunspot prediction, economic cycle comparison. It is relevant to comparative cycles research because it links periodic behaviour across disciplines and encourages common methods for testing recurrence, phase and causation.
Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Interdisciplinary or Other forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ScienceDirect)
- Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
- URL type: WWW
- Credits: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ScienceDirect)
- URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364682616302255