Periodic Impact Cratering and Extinction Events Over the Last 260 Million Years

First published: 2015

Brief summary

Circular spectral analysis of 37 dated impact craters and marine extinction events over 260 Myr finds statistically significant cycles of 25.8±0.6 Myr (craters) and 27.0±0.7 Myr (extinctions), in common phase.

Article

Periodic Impact Cratering and Extinction Events Over the Last 260 Million Years is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (Oxford) in 2015. It focuses on circular spectral analysis of 37 dated impact craters and marine extinction events over 260 Myr finds statistically significant cycles of 25.8±0.6 Myr (craters) and 27.0±0.7 Myr (extinctions), in common phase.

The analysis focuses on 25.8 ± 0.6 Myr (craters), 27.0 ± 0.7 Myr (extinctions). The data source is 37 well-dated craters + 8 marine extinction events, redated to Gradstein et al. 2012 timescale. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.

The article reports the following result: A digital circular spectral analysis of 37 crater ages yielded evidence for a significant 25.8 ± 0.6 Myr cycle, and using the same method a significant 27.0 ± 0.7 Myr cycle was found in the dates of eight recognised marine extinction events. The interpretation is strongest when it survives dating uncertainty, preservation bias, alternative event selections and correction for multiple statistical tests.

For cycles researchers, the article brings together impact cratering cycles, extinction periodicity, circular spectral analysis, 26-million-year cycle. It is relevant to debates over whether recurring patterns in the geological record reflect astronomical forcing, internal Earth processes, preservation bias or dating uncertainty.

Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Geology & Paleontology forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.

Source details and credits

• Source / publisher: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (Oxford)
• Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
• URL type: WWW
• Credits: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (Oxford)
• URL: https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/454/4/3480/992970