On the Periodicity Hypothesis of the Ages of Large Impact Craters

First published: 2002

Brief summary

Statistical re-examination of terrestrial impact crater ages finds a period in the range of 27-30 Myr, close to but not identical with the ~26 Myr mass-extinction periodicity, with marginal statistical significance.

Article

On the Periodicity Hypothesis of the Ages of Large Impact Craters is a peer-reviewed journal article published by Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (Oxford) in 2002. It focuses on statistical re-examination of terrestrial impact crater ages finds a period in the range of 27-30 Myr, close to but not identical with the ~26 Myr mass-extinction periodicity, with marginal statistical significance.

The analysis focuses on 27-30 Myr (craters) vs 26 Myr (extinctions). It also considers statistical significance testing discussed in detail. The data source is dated impact crater catalogue. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.

The article reports the following result: Analyses so far carried out give a period ranging from 27 to 30 Myr for crater ages, close to the 26 Myr period derived from mass extinctions, though the statistical significance of the crater periodicity remains debated. The interpretation is strongest when it survives dating uncertainty, preservation bias, alternative event selections and correction for multiple statistical tests.

For cycles researchers, the article brings together impact crater periodicity, crater age dating, 27–30-million-year cycle, statistical significance. It is relevant to debates over whether recurring patterns in the geological record reflect astronomical forcing, internal Earth processes, preservation bias or dating uncertainty.

Because it is a peer-reviewed journal article, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Geology & Paleontology forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.

Source details and credits

• Source / publisher: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (Oxford)
• Source type: Peer-reviewed journal article
• URL type: WWW
• Credits: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (Oxford)
• URL: https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/334/2/369/990461