Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?
First published: 2020
Brief summary
NBER working paper documenting that world commodity prices display long cycles with a periodicity of 20 to 30 years, termed commodity price 'super cycles', and estimates their importance for economic activity across 24 economies.
Article
Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter? is a peer-reviewed working paper published by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 2020. It focuses on NBER working paper documenting that world commodity prices display long cycles with a periodicity of 20 to 30 years, termed commodity price 'super cycles', and estimates their importance for economic activity across 24 economies.
The analysis focuses on 20-30 years (commodity price super cycles). The data source is World Bank Commodity Price database (Pink Sheet) and Global Financial Data, quarterly 1960Q1-2018Q4 across 24 economies. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: World commodity prices are known to display long cycles. These cycles have a periodicity of 20 to 30 years and are called commodity price super cycles, though less work has been devoted to estimating the importance of these cycles for economic activity. The interpretation is strongest when it survives detrending, structural-break tests, changing market composition and out-of-sample validation.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together commodity supercycle, 20–30-year cycle, world commodity prices, economic activity. It is relevant to commodity-cycle research because long waves, business-cycle components and structural breaks can overlap in price records.
Because it is a peer-reviewed working paper, the article is a strong starting point for discussion in the Commodities forum, although its conclusions should still be compared with later replications and updated datasets.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
- Source type: Peer-reviewed working paper
- URL type: PDF
- Credits: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
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