Modeling Onset and Cessation of Tropical Rainfall: Spectral Analysis of Seasonal Cycles
First published: 2018
Brief summary
Uses Lomb-Scargle periodogram to detect periodicities in tropical rainfall onset/cessation, referencing known atmospheric cycles: QBO (2-3 yr), ENSO (5-7 yr), sunspot (10-15 yr), AMO (30 yr).
Article
modelling Onset and Cessation of Tropical Rainfall: Spectral Analysis of Seasonal Cycles is a preprint published by arXiv in 2018. It uses Lomb-Scargle periodogram to detect periodicities in tropical rainfall onset/cessation, referencing known atmospheric cycles: QBO (2-3 yr), ENSO (5-7 yr), sunspot (10-15 yr), AMO (30 yr).
The analysis focuses on 2-3 years (QBO), 5-7 years (ENSO), 10-15 years (sunspot), 30 years (AMO). It also considers methodology paper using Lomb-Scargle periodogram on unevenly sampled data. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: Atmospheric and climatic data show several periodicities such as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (2-3 years), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (5-7 years), Sunspot cycles (10-15 years) and Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (30 years). The interpretation is strongest when it survives proxy uncertainty, model choice, dating error and comparison with established solar, orbital and ocean-atmosphere forcing.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together tropical rainfall cycles, lomb-scargle periodogram, enso, qbo. It is relevant to climate-cycle research because observed periodicities may arise from orbital forcing, solar variability, ocean-atmosphere dynamics or internal stochastic behaviour.
Because it is a preprint, the work should be read alongside later peer-reviewed publications and independent replications. It remains useful because the proposed cycle, dataset and analytical approach are stated clearly enough to be scrutinised.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: arXiv
- Source type: Preprint
- URL type: PDF
- Credits: arXiv
- URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09677