Climate Change and Its Causes: Astronomical Origin of Climate Oscillations
First published: 2010
Brief summary
Argues natural climate cycles (11, 22, 9.1, 20, 60 years) match known solar (Schwabe/Hale) and lunar/planetary cycles, shown via spectral analysis of global temperature vs. solar system barycentric motion.
Article
Climate Change and Its Causes: Astronomical Origin of Climate Oscillations is a preprint published by arXiv (Scafetta) in 2010. It argues natural climate cycles (11, 22, 9.1, 20, 60 years) match known solar (Schwabe/Hale) and lunar/planetary cycles, shown via spectral analysis of global temperature vs. solar system barycentric motion.
The analysis focuses on 11, 22, 9.1, 18.6, 8.85, 20, 60 years. The study includes spectral analysis figure comparing temperature record to planetary orbital speed record. This gives the cycle claim a specific numerical and evidential setting rather than presenting periodicity only as a visual impression.
The article reports the following result: Natural cycles known with certainty are the 11 (Schwabe) and 22 (Hale) year solar cycles, cycles of the planets, and luni-solar nodal cycles. A spectral analysis of global surface temperature shows cycles matching planetary orbital motion. The interpretation is strongest when it survives proxy uncertainty, model choice, dating error and comparison with established solar, orbital and ocean-atmosphere forcing.
For cycles researchers, the article brings together astronomical climate cycles, solar variability, planetary cycles, spectral analysis. It is relevant to climate-cycle research because observed periodicities may arise from orbital forcing, solar variability, ocean-atmosphere dynamics or internal stochastic behaviour.
Because it is a preprint, the work should be read alongside later peer-reviewed publications and independent replications. It remains useful because the proposed cycle, dataset and analytical approach are stated clearly enough to be scrutinised.
Source details and credits
- Source / publisher: arXiv (Scafetta)
- Source type: Preprint
- URL type: PDF
- Credits: arXiv (Scafetta)
- URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1003.1554