Compiled from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles archive (Cycles Magazine, vols. 1950–1957)

Who He Was

Unlike Brunt, Beveridge, or Playfair, the archive gives Wheeler a real institutional biography — he wasn't a distant authority the Foundation cited from published papers, he was an active correspondent and contributor, and clearly one of Edward Dewey's closest intellectual collaborators.

At different points across the archive he's described as:

• Professor of Psychology at the University of Kansas (his position at the time he did his core war-index work in 1943)

• Head of the Psychology and Philosophy Department, Babson Institute of Business Administration

• Chief of Staff, Climate Research Division, Weather Science Foundation, Crystal Lake, Illinois

That trajectory — psychology professor to climate researcher — matters, because Wheeler's whole project began as psychology and only became climatology by accident, as he explains himself (see below).

Verification note: as with the other entries, only what's explicitly stated in the magazine is included here. Any additional biographical detail (dates, other appointments) would need outside confirmation.

How the Project Started

Wheeler's own account of his research origins, reprinted from his 1943 Presidential Address to the Kansas Academy of Science ("The Effect of Climate on Human Behavior in History"), is worth quoting for how unplanned it was:

"It began over ten years ago, not as a problem in human ecology but as a study of fluctuations in human thought and attitude stumbled upon by accident and confined at first to fluctuations in points of view in the histories of psychology, biology, and philosophy."

He noticed that psychology, biology, and philosophy seemed to swing between opposing intellectual viewpoints in a synchronized way across history. A colleague, hearing him describe this pattern, suggested he compare his curve to the tree-ring records of A. E. Douglass and Ellsworth Huntington — researchers Wheeler says he had never previously consulted. The resemblance was immediate and, in his words, "chance could not possibly explain" it. That comparison redirected his entire research program toward climate.

The War Index: Basic Data Bulletin No. 1

Wheeler's best-documented contribution to the Foundation is a monumental data compilation: an index of international war and civil war intensity spanning 599 B.C. to 1943 A.D., published by the Foundation as Basic Data Bulletin No. 1.

His method, as described in the Foundation's introduction:

"Professor Wheeler prepared his indexes as follows: to a mild engagement he gave a value of one, to a moderately severe engagement he gave a value of two, and to a very exceptionally heavy engagement he gave a value of three."

He built two separate indexes — one for international battles, one for civil war battles — summing the severity-weighted values year by year across roughly 2,500 years of recorded history. The 1957 volume notes the practical scale of the effort: the underlying dataset drew on roughly 20,000 individual historical items (military records, monastery records, government records, tree-ring data, and more) used to reconstruct climate phases stretching back through history.

The Central Thesis: Climate Drives Conflict

Wheeler's core argument, laid out in his Presidential Address and reproduced at length in the Foundation's January 1951 report, is that climate governs the rise and fall of civilizations and the timing of war. His own summary chart is titled, memorably, the "Clock of Cold Droughts and Civil Wars" — captioned in the magazine as follows:

"The climate of the earth shifts from warmer to colder periods and back again, frequently in rhythms. History shows that nations are built on shifts from cold periods to warm, when the human energy level temporarily reaches a maximum. Nations crumble on the shift from warm to cold. International wars are mostly warm, civil wars cold. Each phase, warm and cold, begins wet and ends dry."

He also links political character to climate phase, arguing (in his own words from the address) that totalitarianism is typical of late-half warm periods while democracy is revived during cold times — a striking, and clearly speculative, extension of the climate thesis into political history.

Specific Cycle Lengths

Wheeler and the Foundation attribute several nested cycle lengths to his war and climate data:

• ~11.2 years — a shorter rhythm in international battle frequency

• ~22–23 years — the dominant cycle Dewey's team found in Wheeler's international battle index, described in the 1950 volume as the pattern of "10 or 12 years of relative freedom from international conflict followed by periods of 10 or 12 years" of frequent battles

• ~57 years

• ~142 years — proposed as possibly connected to slower physical climate proxies like tree-ring and sedimentary rock deposit thickness

• ~510 years — Wheeler's major long-cycle climate finding, discovered in 1943 and reported in the Foundation's January 1951 issue. The 1957 volume notes: "A cold period is due to come the latter part of the present century according to Dr. Wheeler" — a forecast made in the 1940s for the late 20th century.

• 17.73 years (or "17¾") — a cycle Dewey's team measured directly from Wheeler's combined war-battle dataset in later analysis, described as tentative due to interference from a nearby cycle of similar length

His Own Publications

The Foundation's library records (1951 volume) list a run of Wheeler's own bulletins, published through the Journal of Human Ecology (Weather Science Foundation, Crystal Lake, Illinois), donated to the Foundation directly by Wheeler:

1. Aims and Policies (Parts I & II)

2. Today an Old World is Dying and a New One is Taking its Place

3. The Seven-Year Rainfall Cycle in the U.S. in Relation to Business Trends

4. The 9-Year Cycle in Common Stock Prices in Relation to the Weather Trends

5. The 18.3-Year Cycle in Real Estate in Relation to Rainfall

6. Weather and Business Trends in the United States, 1794–1950 and Throughout History

This is a substantial and wide-ranging body of applied work — Wheeler wasn't only a historian of climate and conflict, he was actively trying to connect climate cycles to real-time economic indicators (stock prices, real estate) during his own lifetime.

A Telling Detail: Sunspots and Cold Snaps

Wheeler's address includes an observation connecting sunspot behavior to climate phase that's a nice complement to the Brunt/Beveridge/Anderson sunspot material already covered:

"From the continuous telescopic sunspot record that was commenced in 1755 it is evident that the single sunspot cycle of 11.3 years suddenly lengthens at the onset of a warm period, shortens at the onset of the cold phase. The cycle averages longer during warm than during cold times."

This ties Wheeler's climate-history work directly into the same sunspot literature that Brunt, Beveridge, and C. N. Anderson were independently working from — another point of convergence across researchers who don't otherwise seem to have been in close contact.

Why He Mattered to the Foundation

Wheeler stands apart from Brunt, Beveridge, Brückner, and the other figures covered so far because he wasn't just a data source the Foundation mined for corroboration — he was an active theorist whose central claim (climate governs history) gave Dewey's broader project its most ambitious possible payoff. If Wheeler was right, cycles research wasn't just about commodity prices and sunspot counts — it was a master key to understanding war, political upheaval, and the arc of civilizations themselves.

Suggested Forum Angle

Wheeler is a much bigger and more controversial figure than Brunt, Beveridge, or Playfair — his climate-determinism thesis (democracy during cold periods, totalitarianism during warm ones) is the kind of claim that invites real scrutiny and pushback, then and now. For your forum, he might work best framed not just as "another forgotten cycles researcher" but as the figure whose work raises the sharpest question the whole field has to answer: how much of human history can climate actually explain? He's also the only figure covered so far with a large, coherent, standalone body of published work outside the Foundation's own magazine, which may make him worth pursuing further if you can track down the Journal of Human Ecology bulletins directly.

Early life

Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky was born on 7 February 1897 in Tsekhanovets, then part of the Russian Empire (now Ciechanowiec, Poland), the son of a Russian military general. He grew up mainly in Kaluga — coincidentally the same town where Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, the pioneering rocket scientist and cosmist thinker, lived and worked. The two became friends, and Tsiolkovsky's cosmist philosophy — the idea that life on Earth is inseparably bound up with cosmic processes — left a deep mark on the young Chizhevsky's thinking.

Chizhevsky was extraordinarily broad in his talents: alongside his scientific career he was a published poet and a painter whose watercolors were exhibited in Soviet galleries. But his lasting legacy is as the founder of two interlinked fields: heliobiology, the study of how solar activity affects living things, and aero-ionization, the study of how the electrical charge of air affects biological organisms.

The 11-year cycle in human affairs

Chizhevsky's most famous — and most controversial — body of work applied the technique of historiometry: the statistical analysis of historical records to look for patterns. In his 1924 study Physical Factors of the Historical Process, he assembled a dataset of roughly 2,500 major historical events — wars, revolutions, uprisings, epidemics — spanning 500 BCE to 1922 CE, across Russia and more than seventy other countries, and compared their timing against the historical record of sunspot activity.

His conclusion was startling: a large majority of the most significant mass events in human history clustered around the years of solar maximum, near the peak of the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle. He proposed that geomagnetic disturbances driven by solar flares altered human "mass excitability" — the collective psychological and physiological state of populations — making societies more prone to upheaval when the Sun was most active.

He broke the 11-year cycle into four qualitative phases:

1. A ~3-year trough of minimum activity, marked by passivity and acceptance of autocratic rule.
2. A ~2-year phase in which masses begin organizing under new leaders and unifying ideas.
3. A ~3-year peak of maximum excitability — the period most associated with revolution and war.
4. A ~3-year decline back toward apathy.

Edward Dewey, founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, took Chizhevsky's data seriously enough to analyze and republish it in 1951, though he noted a puzzle: in Chizhevsky's own data, the sunspot peak seemed to lag about a year behind the peak in "mass excitability," rather than leading it — a timing detail that has fueled debate about cause and effect ever since. Later researchers have continued to test the hypothesis; a 1992 study by Arcady Putilov, re-analyzing Soviet historical records, found supporting patterns in the frequency of civil disturbances.

Air ions and the biological effects of the Sun

Chizhevsky's other major contribution was demonstrating that air itself — specifically its ionization, the balance of positively and negatively charged particles — has measurable biological effects. Working with animals and later in clinical settings, he showed that negative air ions tended to have beneficial physiological effects, while an excess of positive ions correlated with fatigue, poor health, and irritability. This work connected directly back to his solar interests: solar activity modulates Earth's geomagnetic field and atmospheric ionization, giving him a physical mechanism by which distant solar events could plausibly reach into human physiology and psychology.

Later in life, largely barred from continuing his solar-cycle research (see below), Chizhevsky turned this ionization work into practical medicine, introducing aero-ionic therapy into Soviet medical institutions and running an aero-ionification laboratory for the Soviet state planning organization.

Persecution and rehabilitation

Chizhevsky's ideas — that vast historical forces like revolutions could be driven by the Sun rather than by class struggle — sat uneasily with official Marxist historiography. He refused to recant his theories, and in 1942 he was arrested and sent to labor camps, followed by years of internal exile. He was not fully rehabilitated until after Stalin's death.

Because most of his key publications appeared only in Russian and French, his work remained largely unknown to English-language science for decades — a gap that cycles researchers such as those at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles have worked to close.

He died in Moscow on 20 December 1964, after a long illness, and is buried under a headstone carved with an image of the Sun — a fitting tribute to a scientist who spent his life arguing that our nearest star reaches further into human affairs than almost anyone else was willing to claim.

Why he matters to cycles research

Chizhevsky stands as one of the earliest and most ambitious figures to treat "cycles" not as a curiosity confined to one discipline, but as a thread running from solar physics through geomagnetism and atmospheric physics into human biology, psychology, and history itself — precisely the interdisciplinary spirit that later cycles researchers, including Edward Dewey's Foundation for the Study of Cycles, tried to carry forward. His 11-year "mass excitability" cycle remains one of the boldest — and still debated — claims in the entire literature of historical cycles.

An unlikely climatologist

Raymond Holder Wheeler was, by training, a psychologist — a professor at the University of Kansas whose early career was spent in laboratory studies of perception and behavior. It was a striking career pivot, then, when in the 1930s he turned his attention to a vastly larger question: was there a rhythmic pattern connecting the Earth's climate to the rise and fall of human civilizations?

Wheeler's approach was less about theorizing and more about sheer accumulation of evidence. Over roughly two decades he assembled an enormous compilation of historical climate and cultural records — tree rings, historical chronicles, harvest and famine records, migration patterns, war and revolution dates — stretching back to around 600 BCE. At the peak of the project he is said to have employed as many as 200 researchers. The result, sometimes called simply "The Big Book," was a physical archive reportedly around 2,000 pages long and, when laid out, some seven feet in extent. It was later housed at the Foundation for the Study of Cycles until the late 1990s.

The 100-year cycle

Out of this mountain of data, Wheeler identified what he considered the single most important rhythm in human history: a climatic cycle averaging about 100 years (ranging in practice from roughly 70 to 120 years), running through four repeating seasons of cold-dry, cold-wet, warm-wet and warm-dry conditions — echoing, on a vastly longer timescale, the four seasons of an ordinary year.

Wheeler linked each phase of this climatic cycle to characteristic social and political conditions:

• Warming transitions (cold moving to warm) tend to coincide with nation-building and rising human energy and vigor — improved health, higher birth rates, migration to rural areas, and economic expansion.
• Cooling transitions (warm moving to cold) tend to coincide with the crumbling of established nations and institutions.
• International wars cluster in warm periods; civil wars cluster in cold ones.
• Totalitarian government tends to emerge late in warm periods; democratic revival tends to follow in cold ones.
• Every phase, warm or cold, is said to begin wet and end dry — with the driest points of cold phases marking the sharpest social crises.

Nested cycles: 100, 170, 500, and 1,000 years

Wheeler didn't stop at the century scale. He argued the pattern was fractal — the same broad rhythm repeating at multiple nested timescales:

• A roughly 170-year cycle of civil war and drought, which he associated with the Uranus–Neptune planetary cycle.
• A roughly 510-year cycle marking especially severe cold, drought, and civil war episodes — essentially every third instance of the 170-year cycle compounding with the deeper 500-year rhythm.
• A 500-year cycle, within which every fifth 100-year cold phase was unusually severe — occurring, by his reckoning, in the 5th century BCE and the 1st, 5th, 10th and 15th centuries CE.
• A 1,000-year cycle, marked by the end of alternating 500-year periods, associated with the collapse of entire civilizations rather than mere regime change.

Wheeler summarized the overall pattern with the idea that the turning points between old and new civilizations occur precisely when cold, dry conditions reach their most extreme.

He built these nested rhythms into a visual tool sometimes called the "Drought Clock," designed to forecast the timing of future cold, dry, socially turbulent periods by combining the 100-year and 170-year cycles. Notably, this clock pointed to a convergence of the 170-year cycle of civil unrest and the roughly 510-year drought cycle right around the year 2000 — a forecast made decades in advance, in the 1930s–1950s, well before the era it was predicting.

Correspondence with Edward Dewey

Wheeler corresponded with Edward Dewey, the founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, and the two compared notes on a striking pattern: cycles measured in completely different units (days, months, years) often turned out to share the same underlying numerical values. This dovetails with Dewey's own observation that many natural cycle periods relate to one another by simple ratios of 2 and 3 (and their products) — the same harmonic, whole-number-ratio spirit that runs through the wider cycles research tradition.

Legacy

Wheeler's work sits in an unusual position: too data-driven and historically grounded to dismiss outright, yet built on correlational, pre-computer-age analysis that modern climatology has never fully absorbed or validated. His central claim — that climate swings on multiple nested timescales are causally entangled with the rise, decline, and violent transitions of human societies — remains a live and provocative thread in cycles research, echoed in later work by researchers who have continued to track his "Drought Clock" forward into the 21st century.