William C Garrett - Investing for profit

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William C Garrett - Investing for profit

Postby acepsut » 29 Jul 2011, 13:32

With torque analys of stock market cycles *

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Table of Contents

How You Can Profit From a Knowledge of Stock Market Cycles

1. Price Cycles in the Market

The Genesis of Cycles
Price cycles derive from the tick-rhythm of opposed forces
Cyclical impulse waves follow a tick-rhythm breakout
Cyclical recoil movements follow exhaustion of an impulse force
Interim movements mark the shift from dominance of a cyclical force
Intra-day cyclical movements in individual stocks
Simultaneous individual moves create market cycles
The Harmonic Nature of Cycles
Market’s cyclical system is built of harmonic length cycles
Longer rhythms are harmonic combinations of shorter rhythms
How cycles combine
How to synthesize five cycles into one market pattern
The need to understand the cyclical system
Cycles promise to bridge the gap to the future
Four parts of the cyclical principle
How market cycles adjust to discordant situations
A Synthesis Reveals the Market’s Cyclical Nature
How cycles performed in discordant period prior to 1932
How cycles performed in the 1932-1966 periods of the 17 year cycle
The 17 year cycles divides business history into logical epochs
How longer cycles break down into logical epochs
How the 1928-32 cycle broke down into 17 month lengths
How the five-cycle synthesis matches weakness in the DJI
The 8.5 year cycle is a double 4.25 year cycle

2. The Forces and Framework of the Cyclical Structure

The Nature of The Volume Forces
Stock flows from seller to buyer
The flow of volume measures buying desire
How the cyclical field is formed
Why high prices are paid for stocks
Why closest pricebands in the field are the strongest
Volume flow determines amplitude and length of cyclical swings
In bull markets, the seller is more important than the buyer
How & why support & resistance forcebands form in cyclical field
Support/resistance bands & triangles are really volume accumulations
At harmonic levels
Volume action since the beginning of the DJI
How moving volume totals reveal long and short cycles
Volume plays on the market’s harmonic cyclical structure
The Invisible Mechanism of Cycles
A cycle moves because of a thrust against its own circumference
Characteristics and properties of the Fibonacci series
The trigonometry of a square and a triangle
Fibonaccis result from movement of the axis of a circle
Fibonacci ratio is a sum of a square, a thrust, and the phi additive
The Fibonacci Phi additive is a portable value
The mechanics of a thrust and a recoil
The Fibonacci values control the growth of a cycle
The Golden Section and the Great Pyramid of Egypt

3. How Volume Powers the Cycle Mechanism

Volume Alters Basic Cyclical Shapes
The effect of the quantity of volume on a cycle
When buying volume expands, selling volume contracts
Prices only indicate subsurface conditions
How one force can increase and also remain equal to its opposite
How epicycles “crack the whip” at market tops
Vectors in the Cyclical Field Are Controlled By Volume
Volume determines the angle of a cyclical vector
Vectors carry the thrust of small cycles to big cycles
Big cycles build because their “receivers are ½ phase out of sync
Vectors also measure the market’s condition
Cycles and the Random Walk, or the Effect of Randoms & Seasonals on Cycles
Cyclical analysis can assimilate technical, fundamental, & risk-factor anal.
How the cyclical field contains and tames random events
The elasticity of volume quantity contains the randoms
The seasonal pattern in average monthly volume
Why market crashes hot bottom in July and October
The reason why the “summer rally” has disappeared
Why the sixth month is the toughest in the tax-holding period

4. Torque Analysis of Stock Market Cycles

Basis for Torque Analysis: Price is a Liar
Torque analysis shows cycles as the yield from underlying balances
The formula for Torque analysis of cyclical strength
Torque analysis of cycles measure underlying forces, not prices
Two cycle radii do not always equal a cycle diameter
Opposed forces meet head-on but the effect is a right angle
Problems with Finding The Basis of Cyclical Forces
How to understand price movement contradictions
Why it is important to separate buying and selling volume
How to break volume into buying and selling volume
OXY illustrates the relationships of price and volume
An example of breaking individual stock volume into two totals
How advance-decline figures improve the visibility of price moves
Setting Up Statistics for Torque Analysis
Why moving totals should equal a cycle radius
The link relationship between numbers in a time series
How to compute the Torque factors of cycle forces
Why price divided by volume equals radius times force
Adjusting our cycles to practical lengths
The problem of lag in moving totals
The reason we use end-formed moving totals
What a chart shows us about lag in moving advances totals
The filtering action inherent in moving totals
What Charted Torque Statistics Reveal
Advances totals correspond closely to the Dow average
Volume totals remain closely balanced, except in large downswings
Buying causes stocks to advance; increased prices cause selling
Price-volume relationship is not a fixed ratio
DJI velocity index defines the price-volume relationship
Cycles derive from the balance of price-volume relationships
How Cycles are Revealed by the Price-Volume Relationship
How five cycles defined the 1970 trough
How chord of cycles acted in 1966-70 swing of 221 week cycle
Movements of small cycles vs large cycles

5. The Art of Forecasting with Market Cycles

Rudiments of Cycle Forecasting
Seven basic assumptions of cycle forecasting
Price cycles have two axes, thus follow a parabolic path
Time progression of trailing axis causes a Fibonnaci grid to form
Each mature cycle is a closed system of influence
Why price cycles pear down at cyclical troughs
Image of a new cycle derives from the peak of an old one
The Technique of Cycle Forecasting
How to establish the limits of cyclical swing
How cycles synchronize their clocks at cyclical troughs
How the Torque formula overcomes lag in moving advances totals
Forecasting the future by exhaustion of moving total values
Using extrusion to compare today’s market with older time periods
The Effect of Volume on Cycle Forecasting
The influence of economics on market cycles
Volume is cyclical, psychological, and seasonal
The seasonal pattern in volume figures
The cyclical pattern in volume figures
Seasonal-cyclical pattern of volume in the 1966-1970 market

6. How to Profit From Stock Market Cycles

Cycles Tell When Stocks are Cheap or High
Investing should be a business proposition
Markets of the future are likely to be cyclical markets
The effect of cycles in a trendless market
The teamwork between cycles and fundamentals
Swing with long-cycle trends because you can’t fight them
Commonality-the tendency of stocks to swing together
Convergence/divergence at work in major market averages
Individual issues indicate that cyclical pull is always present
The Dynamic Potential of Stock Market Cycles
Large cycles have narrow swings but broad effects on stocks
The 78-week cycle also has lots of cyclical “punch”
The 1966-1970 swing of long cycles and performance of control data
The 1966-1970 swing of the long cycles and the performance of Natomas
Fidelity of Cycles Defined By Torque Analysis
Response of GM to long-cycle pull
Response of Southern Pacific to long-cycle pull
Response of AEP to the long cycles
Response of GM to short-cycle pull
Response of Natomas to short cycles
Cycles Provide Perspective for Market Decisions
Effect of cycles on a stock with declining fundamentals
Effect of cycles on a stock with good fundamentals
Relationship of cycles and the Elliott Wave Principle

* https://www.traderspress.com/detail.php?PKey=101
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Re: William C Garrett - Investing for profit

Postby RayTomes » 30 Jul 2011, 02:00

Is he any relation to "E T" Garrett who was at FSC? ET was quite a brilliant chap who I met there about 1990.
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