Brian Millard - Future Trends from Past Cycles

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Brian Millard - Future Trends from Past Cycles

Postby acepsut » 29 Jul 2011, 13:13

Identifying share price trends and turning points through cycle, channel and probability analysis

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Harnessing probabilities with groundbreaking precision

Future Trends from Past Cycles explains how to identify potential future trends and turning points in equity prices (short, long and medium-term) by analysing past cycles in market data. Brian Millard's renowned technical expertise and mathematical insight forms the basis of this fascinating guide, built around a blend of cycle, channel and probability analysis.

With a thoroughly documented methodology, and numerous worked examples at every step of the process, this is an exceptionally lucid and insightful contribution to the literature of technical analysis. It will help the trader to harness probabilities to their advantage, and to limit their risk, with greater precision than ever before.

Finding the key 10% with a trading triple lock

This book teaches you how to use cycles in your trading in a way that hasn't been attempted previously. At its heart are the three disciplines of cycle, channel and probability analysis, which ensure a triple lock on probability - massively reducing the blind spots and speculative nature common to more one-dimensional technical approaches.

While the general view of technical analysts is that virtually all securities can be analysed for future movement, the detailed workings and research in this book shows that this is not the case. Only a small number, around 10%, have cycles which extrapolation shows to be currently in a stable state and which therefore would appear to be predictable.

Brian Millard details the mechanics of identifying this 10% - estimating the stability of trend positions, drawing probability boundaries for price positions, and deducing the core probability of any given price trend. He looks closely at the various forms of risk at play in the markets, uncovers the hidden mathematics of price movement, and shows how to simulate future movements; as well as presenting ideas on the best new ways to read cycles, evaluate mathematical trends, plot moving averages and anticipate turning points.

Like the work of J. M. Hurst, Millard's forbear, Future Trends "shows what is possible when approaching the markets with a measured, logical technique based on firm mathematical and scientific logic".

It is the essential final book from an acclaimed technical analyst and author.



1. Introduction
Definition of a Trend
Definition of a Cycle
Determining Trend

2. Risk and the Markets
Sources of Risk

3. How Prices Move (I)
Coin Tossing
Rising and Falling Trends

4. How Prices Move (II)
The Normal Distribution

5. Simulating Future Movement
Monte Carlo Simulation

6. Cycles and the Market
Properties of Sine Waves
Cycles in the Stock Market
Research on Market Cycles

7. Trends and the Market
Mathematical Trends
Extrapolating a trend line

8. Properties of Moving Averages
Calculation of Moving Averages

9. Averages as Proxies for Trends
Probabilities From Centred Averages
Boundaries and Channels

10. Trend Turning Points (I)
Short-term Trends

11. Trend Turning Points (II)
Estimation of Channel Direction

12. Trend Turning Points (III)
Why Does Channel Analysis Work?

13. Cycles and Sums of Cycles
Extrapolation of Cycles
The Comparator
Failure of Extrapolations

14. Bringing it All Together
Four Key Steps

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