Gold cycle of about 120 days

Cycles in prices and supply of commodities

Gold cycle of about 120 days

Postby RayTomes » 13 Jul 2011, 02:32

An article on "Gold Cycle, Perodicity and Bollinger Bands" by By Barry Ritholtz examines a cycle in gold prices of around 120 days. The article appears here:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/go ... ger-bands/

The graphic shows a clear pattern of 4 or 5 cycles of 117 to 123 days.
Image

I have often found this same cycle period in stock markets. Edward R Dewey lists cycles of 0.66 years (240 days) and 0.33 years (120 days) as very common cycles periods.
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Re: Gold cycle of about 120 days

Postby acepsut » 15 Jul 2011, 08:38

The Barry Ritholtz's article July 11th, 2011 shows a 120 day cycle in gold daily serie ranging from 3/31/2009 up to 7/12/2011.

A 121,65 days cycles in gold was the best one as Bartels value as from my thread "Dominant cycles and Bartels cycles:a study in gold", 20 aug 2010

121,65 days Bartels value.PNG
121,65 days Bartels value.PNG (4.39 KiB) Viewed 8998 times


Data I've used (1991-2000) is longer than Barry Ritholtz's analysis in order to have a more reliable statistical significance for the Bartels test.

With a so low Bartels value there is no surprise to see a 120 cycle period still alive in present days, as show from the Barry Ritholtz's article.

Daily analysis in gold with power spectrum and Bartels values is here:

viewtopic.php?f=28&t=23

Happy cycles!
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